[SMM Metal Breakfast] the lead of the outer plate metal fell 2.41% * the Federal Reserve interest rate remained unchanged * LME zinc inventory soared nearly 60, 000 tons

[overnight quotation] the metal in the outer disk fell 2.41%, the Federal Reserve interest rate remained unchanged, and the dollar rose sharply.

[macro outlook] pay attention to the initial value of the actual annualized quarterly rate of GDP in the United States in the fourth quarter.

Yesterday, the whole metal of the outer disk was green, Lunchu fell 1.9%, Len aluminum fell 1.75%, Lunzn zinc fell 3.13%, Lunni fell 1.55%, Lunxi fell 0.31%, and Lunxi lead fell 2.41%. In the domestic market, international copper fell 1.64%, Shanghai copper fell 1.48%, Shanghai Aluminum fell 0.1%, Shanghai zinc fell 1.81%, Shanghai lead fell 0.77%, Shanghai nickel fell 1.22%, Shanghai tin rose 0.4%, iron ore fell 0.53%, thread dropped 0.25%, and stainless steel fell 0.76%. Domestic non-ferrous metals generally fell, only Shanghai tin floating red, SMM believes that the tight situation of domestic tin supply is still not effectively alleviated, the enthusiasm of smelters to ship goods is limited, and the spot market supply continues to be tight. SMM expects that the recent reduction in domestic spot circulation and the release of pre-holiday stock demand will provide some support for Shanghai tin.

The dollar index hit an intraday high of 90.89 since January 18. On January 27, the Federal Reserve left overnight interest rates unchanged near zero and monthly bond purchases unchanged. The dollar rose sharply, boosted by safe-haven buying.

The three major indexes of US stocks fell across the board, with the Dow recording its worst one-day performance since Oct. 28, 2020, falling 633.87 points, or 2.05%, to 30303.17. The S & P 500 erased gains so far in 2021, falling 98.85 points, or 2.57%, to 3750.77. The Nasdaq fell 355.47 points, or 2.61%, to 13270.60. On the face of the news, the Fed kept monetary interest rates unchanged, saying the pace of economic and employment recovery was slowing. Powell said the novel coronavirus epidemic has increased economic uncertainty.

Inventory

Macro focus

The Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0 per cent, 0.25 per cent, in line with market expectations.

[more than 25.54 million deaths of COVID-19 in the United States are close to 430000.] according to statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 15:22 Eastern time on the 27th, the cumulative number of confirmed cases by COVID-19 in the United States has reached 25540461, and the death toll has reached 427513.

[World Health Organization (WHO): the novel coronavirus mutant found in the UK has appeared in 70 countries and regions] on the 27th local time, the weekly epidemiological report released by World Health Organization (WHO) pointed out that the novel coronavirus mutant found in the UK has been found in 70 countries and regions, the novel coronavirus mutant found in South Africa has been found in 31 countries and regions, and the novel coronavirus mutant found in Brazil has been found in 8 countries and regions. More than 4.1 million new cases were confirmed by COVID-19 worldwide last week, down 15 per cent from the previous week. There were more than 95000 new deaths, an increase of 1 per cent over the previous week.

[Liu he presided over the meeting of the State Council leading Group on State-owned Enterprise Reform] Liu he presided over and delivered a speech at the fifth meeting of the State Council leading Group on State-owned Enterprise Reform, which stressed that to implement the three-year action plan, it is necessary to have a good grasp of "one grasp and four incisions." Among them, "a grasp" is the unity of strengthening the leadership of the party and improving corporate governance. The "four incisions" are: first, to improve efficiency, enhance the vitality of enterprises, and form a higher-quality input-output relationship; second, to pay close attention to innovation, strengthen innovation incentives, and play a pillar and leading role in speeding up the realization of scientific and technological self-reliance and self-improvement; the third is to defuse risks, highlight the main responsibility, reduce the level of enterprise management, and compact supervision and shareholder responsibility. Fourth, standardize accounting, achieve important results in the implementation of classified accounting and classified assessment of public welfare business, and speed up the establishment and improvement of the statistical index system and evaluation system of the state-owned economy.

[the National Development and Reform Commission: the catalogue of encouraged Industries in the Western region (2020) "was revised and promulgated. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the catalogue of encouraged Industries in the Western region (2020), which will come into effect on March 1, 2021. The catalogue of encouraged Industries in the Western region issued by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2014 (National Development and Reform Commission decree No. 15 of 2014) shall be repealed at the same time. "View details

Today's focus

SMM analysis: can the spot discount market of electrolytic copper continue to sell goods at the end of January and near the Spring Festival? As the end of the month approaches, the spot market of electrolytic copper will dominate the market next month, with a price difference of 20-30 yuan / ton compared with the current month. On January 27, 2021, the price of the spot market in Shanghai fluctuated sharply. The price of flat copper's monthly ticket fell from 50 yuan / ton in the morning market to 40 yuan / ton in the morning market, and then rose again to around 30 yuan / ton in the afternoon. "View details

[SMM analysis: zinc prices are dragged down by weak consumption in the short term or adjusted to 19300-19500 yuan / ton] domestic consumption also continues to weaken before the Spring Festival holiday, and the country enters the accumulation cycle, basically facing the drag on zinc prices, and short-term zinc prices may continue to be adjusted downward to 19300-19500 yuan / ton. "View details

[SMM analysis: LME zinc inventory soars by nearly 60, 000 tons in short-term Shanghai zinc or 19500 yuan / ton] after the zinc price falls further, the production pressure of the refinery will be further magnified, and we will pay attention to whether the refinery maintenance and production reduction plan will advance or increase the maintenance quantity in the future. Consumers enter the traditional off-season before the festival, downstream enterprises have a holiday to stop production, leading to the social treasury into the accumulation period, the formation of a drag on zinc prices, short-term Shanghai zinc or down about 19500 yuan / ton. "View details

[reduction of spot stock in domestic circulation + pre-festival reserve demand to support tin price] the tight situation of domestic tin ore supply is still not effectively alleviated, the enthusiasm of smelters to ship goods is limited, and the spot market supply continues to be tight. SMM expects that the recent reduction in spot stock in domestic circulation and the release of pre-holiday stock demand constitute a certain support for tin in Shanghai, with a resistance of 175000 yuan / ton above and 167500 yuan / ton below. "View details

[SMM analysis: is there enough momentum to continue to rise? Illustration of nickel and stainless steel linkage with a number of fundamental data] in the first month of 2021, the nickel and stainless steel market achieved a gratifying "good start", with prices rising rapidly, and the rise in nickel prices was closely related to the loose policy of overseas dollars. at the same time, received the new energy "network celebrity" halo blessing, at the same time, the rise of stainless steel is more related to the better-than-expected fundamentals and the production and delivery plans of large companies. "View details

[SMM concern: Indonesia Liqin HJF Nickel Iron Project starts construction period of 400days] according to SMM's understanding, this project, namely HJF Nickel Iron Project, is a new project in cooperation with Indonesian local company Harita. The project includes eight 48000kVA RKEF submerged arc furnaces. According to the current construction schedule, it is expected to be put into operation in 2022, with an additional NPI capacity of 96000 nickel tons / year after all is put into production. "View details

[SMM brief comment: stainless steel SS contract positions move backward shock consolidation holiday approaches spot stability] according to SMM, as the holiday approaches, market turnover gradually weakens, and transport logistics also stops one after another, the pre-festival market is gradually light, and stainless steel price shocks are expected to remain stable before the festival. "View details

[SMM thread: Hangzhou thread stock doubles in two weeks and the peak stock may exceed 1 million tons after two weeks! This week Hangzhou thread inventory 524000 tons, month-on-month + 154000 tons, an increase of 41.6%; lunar calendar year-on-year + 176000 tons, an increase of 50.14%. Just two weeks. "check the details.

[SMM 2020 China power battery installation data analysis: foreign car companies continue to impact the Chinese market iron lithium battery demand or growth of 90%] in 2020, the entire new energy market is relatively tortuous, affected by the global epidemic in the first half of the year, production and sales of less than 400000 vehicles. The new energy market picked up rapidly in the second half of the year, with annual sales of nearly 1.37 million vehicles, an increase of 10.9 per cent year on year. The power battery market is also in a state of "low in front and high in later", and the installed capacity of iron-lithium batteries in passenger cars increased significantly in the second half of the year. This year, the downstream market mainly has the following characteristics: the market concentration has increased, overseas battery companies have entered the list; the advantages of iron-lithium batteries have emerged, and the proportion of passenger cars installed has increased. "View details

[SMM Polysilicon Weekly Review-Market Price continues to rise] the current round of polysilicon price rise is still mainly caused by the actual demand stimulated by silicon wafer production expansion and the pre-demand brought by downstream stock preparation for holidays, while the closer the Spring Festival is, the greater the proportion of inventory incentive factors is. Logistics in various regions of the country will be affected one after another from the first week of February, and some northwest regions have been restricted since the end of January. It is expected that inland silicon enterprises, which are less affected by logistics and have spare capacity, still have room to sign orders to increase prices before the Spring Festival, thus driving the average price of polysilicon market up further. "View details

[SMM brief comment: the catalogue of encouraged industries in the western region issues Guangxi manganese ore and stainless steel entry on the list] according to SMM, Guangxi is rich in manganese ore resources, so the local utilization of manganese ore is mainly reflected in electrolytic manganese and manganese chemical industry, but some local manufacturers have plans to reduce production and stop production during the Lunar New year. It is expected that the manganese market will usher in an optimistic wait-and-see when supply decreases and demand increases after the festival. SMM believes that this year and in the future, the market is optimistic about the development of new energy-powered vehicles, and the use of manganese raw materials will continue to increase, especially in battery-grade manganese sulfate and other manganese chemical raw materials. "View details

SMM research: encourage the development and production of high-performance magnesium alloys! The National Development and Reform Commission recently released the catalogue of encouraged Industries in the Western region (2020). Chongqing, Guizhou, Shaanxi and other provinces encourage the development and production of high-performance magnesium alloys. This measure levies enterprise income tax at a reduced tax rate of 15% for encouraged industrial enterprises in the western region, which is one of the important policies for the large-scale development of the western region. "View details

Important news of metals and industry

[opportunities and challenges brought by RCEP to the import and export trade of China's copper products and the development of the copper industry] as the largest regional free trade agreement today, RCEP will bring opportunities and challenges to the import and export trade of China's copper products, and put forward new requirements for the copper industry to comprehensively promote the high-quality development of the industry, speed up the improvement of the quality of foreign trade, create a pattern of innovative development of foreign trade, and build a community with a shared future for industrial development. "View details

[China Gold International: Jiama Copper Mine Jiajing Company is expected to usher in a comprehensive revaluation] the second phase of Jiama Copper Mine has achieved remarkable results and is about to enter the performance release period. Jiama copper deposit, located in the Gangdise mineralization belt of Tibet Autonomous region, is a large copper-gold polymetallic deposit. At present, two phases of construction have been completed in Jiama mining area, with an ore mining and processing capacity of 50,000 tons per day. The first phase of the project began mining operations in the second half of 2010, the first series of the second phase of the Jiama mining area began commercial production in December 2017, and the second series of the second phase of the Jiama mining area began commercial production in July 2018. "View details

[Jinchuan Group achieved the production task of the first month of 2021 "good start"] in January, Jinchuan Group had a stable and orderly production organization, linked mining and separation, and balanced production of smelting, electrolysis, chlor-alkali industry chain, new materials and processing materials. the output of final products such as nickel, cathode copper and cobalt increased by 9.8%, 10.07% and 42.38% respectively compared with the same period last year, and the quality indicators were all fulfilled the plan. It is 0.43%, 1.61% and 0.37% better than the plan respectively. The energy consumption of 10,000 yuan of output value, the comprehensive energy consumption of nickel and copper decreased by 1.22%, 0.52% and 1.14% respectively compared with the same period last year. "View details

[Nanjing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.: intends to invest no more than 2.823 billion yuan to acquire Wansheng shares] Nanjing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. announced that the company intends to contribute a total of no more than 2.823 billion yuan in cash to acquire Wansheng shares. The subject of this transaction is 127 million shares of Wansheng shares, accounting for about 29.98 per cent of the total share capital of Wansheng shares after non-public offering. If the semiannual profit of Wansheng shares confirmed by the company in 2021 exceeds 200 million yuan (including), and this subscription is approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the company becomes the controller of Wansheng shares, the company will pay a premium of 63.5 million yuan for the transfer price as stipulated in the share transfer Agreement. The purpose of this investment is to realize the development strategy of "industrial operation + industrial investment" by obtaining the control of Wansheng shares. this investment is in line with the industrial layout and chooses the "big material" raceway. in line with the company's long-term development strategic planning.

[global crude steel production fell 0.9 per cent year-on-year in 2020] global crude steel production reached 1.864 billion tons in 2020, down 0.9 per cent from 2019, according to data released by the World Iron and Steel Association ((World Steel Association)) on Tuesday. Among them, the output of crude steel in Asia was 1.3749 billion tons in 2020, an increase of 1.5% over the same period last year. "View details

[BYD (Anhui) New Energy Power Battery Base started] recently, the project of BYD New Energy Power Battery production Base was held in Bengbu Industrial Park. The project is divided into two phases and will be mainly engaged in the manufacture of core products such as new energy battery cells, modules and related supporting industries, so as to create a strategic base for new energy vehicle power batteries. The first phase of the project invests about 3 billion yuan and produces 10GWh power batteries annually.

[nebula shares: net profit for 2020 increased by 1478.18% muri 1816.36%] Nebula shares (300648) issued a performance notice on the evening of January 27th, with an estimated net profit of 56 million yuan to 68 million yuan in 2020, an increase of 1478.18% Mui 1816.36% over the same period last year. During the reporting period, benefiting from the rapid growth of market demand for new energy vehicles and the accelerated production expansion of lithium battery manufacturers, the market demand for the company's products continued to expand, and the company's operating performance as a whole maintained a good growth trend. Operating income and profits have increased steadily.

[Zhongwei shares is expected to make a net profit of more than 390 million last year to increase sales revenue for core customers such as LG Chemical] recently, Zhongwei shares (300919) issued a performance forecast that it is expected to return home with a net profit of 390 million yuan to 430 million yuan, an increase of 116.88%, 139.12% over the same period last year, and basic earnings per share of 0.76 yuan to 0.84 yuan. "View details

[Dongyue Silicon material upward revision performance Forecast: 2020 net profit forecast of 40% 55%] Dongyue Silicon Disclosure Annual performance Forecast revised announcement, before the revision, the net profit in 2020 is expected to be 159 million yuan to 175 million yuan, down 68.39% to 71.24% compared with the same period last year. After the revision, the net profit is expected to be 249 million yuan to 332 million yuan, down 40% 55% from the same period last year.

[Shanghai Silicon Industry expected to make a profit of 77 million-92 million yuan in 2020 compared with the same period last year] the Shanghai Silicon Industry is expected to realize the net profit attributed to the owner of the parent company in 2020 compared with the same period last year (statutory disclosure data). Realize the net profit belonging to the owner of the parent company from 77 million yuan to 92 million yuan, an increase of 166.9145 million yuan to 181.9145 million yuan; The net profit belonging to the owner of the parent company after deducting non-recurring profits and losses-250 million yuan to-310 million yuan will be reduced by 1.26255 billion yuan to 72.6255 million yuan.

The world's largest gold ETF--SPDR Gold Trust position fell 3.21 tons, or 0.27%, from the previous day, to 1169.17 tons.

Terminal information

Tesla: the Shanghai Super Factory will continue to expand further this year. The production of Model Y in Shanghai Super Factory started at the end of 2020 and is currently in full capacity.

Tesla: the net profit in the fourth quarter of 2020 was $270 million, compared with $105 million in the same period last year. The market is expected to be $763 million. Revenue in 2020 is $31.536 billion, compared with $24.578 billion in the same period last year, and the market is expected to be $31.105 billion. Net profit for 2020 was $721 million, compared with a loss of $862 million in the same period last year, and the market is expected to be $1.272 billion.

[Tesla research partner Jeff Dan: will help Tesla reduce battery cost and extend service life to decades] famous battery research expert and Tesla research partner Jeff Dan (Jeff Dahn) said that in the future, it will continue to help improve Tesla's lithium-ion battery and other battery products and develop better advanced batteries for its products. The goal is to increase energy density, reduce costs and extend service life up to decades. Electric cars are amazing and will be more imaginative and cheaper in the future. A few days ago, Tesla just renewed his five-year research contract with Jeff Dan Lab. Tesla began to get help from Jeff Dan in 2016 and applied for a number of battery technology patents.

[EU spends 2.9 billion euros to form a second battery alliance] the EU approved 2.9 billion euros worth of subsidies from 12 member states for a second pan-European project to develop the battery industry and wean itself off Asian imports.

[Shanghai will establish a linkage mechanism between management and law enforcement of the real estate market, rectify and standardize the market order] on the morning of January 27, Shanghai Housing Administration, Municipal Market Supervision Bureau, and other departments held a special meeting to discuss and implement the "opinions on promoting the stable and healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in this City." The participating units will establish a linkage mechanism between real estate market management and law enforcement, further strengthen the supervision of real estate development enterprises, sales agencies and brokers, and continuously step up efforts to rectify and standardize the order of the real estate market, so as to form a joint force in law enforcement. We should strictly investigate and deal with all kinds of illegal acts in the process of commercial housing sales, such as price violations, false advertisements, fabricating rumors to disturb market order, spreading false information to mislead market expectations, and inducing to evade regulation and control policies.

According to authoritative sources, the National Railway Group plans to put into production about 3700 kilometers of new lines in 2021, of which about 1600 kilometers are high-speed railways. By the end of 2021, the mileage of railways in operation across the country is expected to reach about 150000 kilometers, including about 39600 kilometers of high-speed railways.